I’ll never claim to be a math person. Nuance, context, and other shades of gray are where I prefer to live — and dress in, as it were. In the greatest sport on earth, rife with bizarre storylines, a convoluted “amateur” structure, and seeming chaos, we can always turn to the data to determine how competitive a season has truly been, divorced from how we may feel about it. The first expanded playoff has certainly been an exercise in averages, and though the selection committee probably didn’t intend it, the median has prevailed. The outlying seeds — in both directions — have all been eliminated, and now we’re left with four teams that would not have qualified for the last 10 years but are far from Cinderella stories.
Before this year, there were 20 total semifinal games (previously the opening round) played, and the average score of those contests was 39-21, with most of them two-possession or greater victories. The average score of this year’s opening round games was 36-17, just a one-statistical-point-greater difference from the established average from 10 years of playoff data thus far, which is reasonable for the introduction of lower-seeded teams. All lower-seeded, visiting teams (Clemson, Indiana, SMU, and Tennessee) lost handily to their hosts, the Mustangs suffering the worst defeat in Happy Valley, losing to Penn State 38-10. Fifth-seeded Texas played the closest game against Clemson 38-24, but the ’Horns held a 28-10 advantage at halftime and the final score is somewhat misleading. These pre-bowl games did retain the novelty of the first major playoff games ever hosted on campus, which somewhat redeemed the lack of competitiveness of the spats themselves.
The parallel drawn between TCU and SMU after the Mustangs were boat-raced after an otherwise remarkable season aren’t lost on me, though we Frog fans can sleep comfortably armed with the data that we were the first Texas-based squad to both appear in and win a semifinal when TCU outlasted second-seeded Michigan what seems like 100 years ago. If my estimations are correct, TCU will retain that distinction after Ohio State beats Texas in Arlington on Friday, but more on that later.
Did the second-round quarterfinals prove any more intriguing or competitive than the round of 16? Yes, but less so than hoped. The most disappointing result came from Boise State, who, armed with Frisco product and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, fell flat against the Nittany Lions, who proved that if they focused solely on slowing Jeanty, the Broncos wouldn’t be able to execute a backup plan. Despite dropping into an early two-touchdown hole, Boise was able to move the ball and spent the majority of the contest within a score of the Lions. Three interceptions and two missed field goals separated the only mid-major qualifier from their chance at victory. The 31-14 final isn’t demonstrative of a game that was mostly close, but State’s defense proved the most superior unit on the field. This wasn’t the least competitive game by the numbers, but the advancement of a mid-major would have brought a fresh storyline and flavor to an otherwise bland postseason.
Notre Dame’s 23-10 victory over the once mighty Georgia Bulldogs (who finished the season with three losses) was a perplexing contest of who to hate more. Frog fans don’t need any additional reasons to despise the Dawgs, and then there’s the Disney darlings of South Bend with the grandfathered television deal and Rudy notoriety who won’t join a conference. The Irish stamped this game sealed and delivered after returning the second-half kickoff to paydirt, securing a 20-3 lead. The Bulldogs did manage one measly endzone appearance near the end of the third quarter but fumbled the ball away twice in the first half and were stopped on downs during their last three offensive series of the game. The Irish will meet Penn State on Thursday in the Orange Bowl and are, in my view, the easiest bet of the Final Four to appear in the national championship game.
Oregon, the only undefeated squad in major college football, was not prepared for the Buckeyes to exact vengeance for their 1-point early season loss to the Ducks. The cadre from Columbus jumped to a massive 34-0 lead before the Big 10 champs managed their first points as time expired in the first half. The rest of the game was a stroll to victory and an eventual 41-21 W for the eighth-seeded Buckeyes.
The redemption of the quarterfinals was old-versus-new Big 12 in the form of Arizona State against Texas and a tale of two halves. Sun Devil running back Cam Skattebo proved his mettle by passing for a touchdown, running for two more, and receiving for 99 total yards in an MVP performance. The Longhorns seemed firmly in control and went into the locker room with a 17-3 halftime lead before the ASU defense stabilized and Skattebo CPR’d his team into contention. The result was a knotted score of 24 at the end of regulation after the Sun Devils failed to complete the upset on their final drive. ASU scored during the first overtime period before Texas’ offense responded in kind and added another touchdown that their opponents couldn’t match. UT had won the most exciting playoff game thus far and in overtime during a contest in which they were favored by almost two touchdowns, thus bringing the average quarterfinals score to an impressively average 34-19 final across all four games but closer overall than the statistical mean established by the previous 10 years of data, mostly thanks to the Austinites.
My gut instincts, which apply only to college football and nothing useful like investing (damn you, Dogecoin), are that we’re rocketing straight toward an SEC-less Rust Belt showdown between the Buckeyes and Irish. The guys in Austin, while rostering one of the most impressive defenses in the country, haven’t proven themselves offensively for four or even three quarters consistently. The Buckeyes stumbled against Michigan, yet again, but are arguably the hottest and most complete team of anyone remaining in the playoffs. The Nittany Lions have dominated thus far but have driven the easiest route to this point and man the least proven roster in contention. I’m forecasting a runaway victory on Thursday for the Irish, who win by at least 17 points, and a 3-point victory for the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl on Friday — OSU will trail Texas at the half but find their way to their first national title appearance since postseason expansion began more than a decade ago. Regardless of the final scores, one close game should still be considered a good round for a playoff that hasn’t been close as an aggregate, and if the two games’ average scores are a 10-point margin or fewer, that’s statistical greatness.
