Two teams that played in Waco on Saturday — TCU and Baylor — aren’t thinking about the College Football Playoff, because neither fanbase of devout churchgoers will be able to water-into-“whine” their way toward anything resembling a meaningful postseason. Last week, I picked Baylor to top our Frogs, which they did, but I also asserted that if TCU could manage their proclivity for turnovers, the game would be tight, which it was. The rivals traded blows throughout the evening, with neither team gaining more than a possession lead on the other all night.
Overall, it was a solidly fought game in which both teams showed their colors. Andy Avalos’ purple defense was efficient at times but fell apart against the run, especially late in the game, similar to the UCF and Houston outings. QB Josh Hoover and his talented receivers broke the Baylor secondary when they needed to, but a wide-open drop by Savion Williams might have proved the execution difference needed to separate. TCU receivers dropped several balls that could have extended drives or, in Williams’ case, guaranteed a touchdown.
Just like last week against Tech, the Frogs scored quickly through the air on their final possession, leaving the onus on their defense to win or, in the case of Saturday, send the game to overtime. And they couldn’t do it. Baylor’s vaunted rushing attack continued bullying the Frogs’ defensive line, racking up 257 yards on the ground on the day.
The Bears hit a walk-off field goal to win 37-34 and snap a five-year losing streak to TCU, delivering Coach Dave Aranda his first-ever victory over the purple people. It’s never fun losing to your rival, but this is only Baylor’s second victory in the Revivalry in the last decade, and the opponents played complementary football without a single turnover. So, as funny as it was watching a newly 5-4 team storm the field after beating another team who was now 5-4, the usual pit of anger just wasn’t there. We’d all just watched an entertaining football game, and both teams are average, which in football is synonymous with mediocre.
Tuesday mattered to many readers in our area because Texas and Texas A&M (who lost their second game of the season Saturday to South Carolina) both had legitimate chances to make the newly expanded playoff. (Our magazine went to press before the announcement.) Also, have you talked to your friends and family about the real possibility of the SMU Mustangs making the playoff? Because as the weeks grind on, it’s looking less and less like a possibility and more and more like a guarantee. The ’Stangs absolutely curb-stomped the ranked Pitt Panthers on Saturday, and the rest of their schedule looks easier than a Highland Park kid’s parent buying their way out of a DUI. There are only three ACC teams left who can make the playoffs: Miami, SMU, and Clemson. Miami is one of only five unbeatens left, and neither the Hurricanes nor the Mustangs have a ranked opponent remaining on the schedule and will likely meet for their conference championship. BYU (SMU’s only loss) is leading the Big 12 and is also unscathed without a marquee opponent remaining. Oregon is top in the AP Poll and leads the pre-rankings thanks to an early victory against Ohio State and a zero in the loss column. Their schedule also looks manageable over the final weeks until they play either Ohio State or Indiana for the Big 10 championship.
So, how does all of this affect that team in Dallas? The Mustangs are sitting 13th in the AP Poll but obviously need to win out to stave off the possibility of Clemson playing for the ACC title and to cement their ranking as high as possible. Win their conference, and the Mustangs are an automatic bid, but should they lose their second game of the season, against Miami, they’ll need to be ranked 12th or better to secure a second bid for their conference.
The SEC is going to send three teams: presumably Georgia as the champion, Alabama provided they beat LSU this weekend, and then whoever wins the UT/A&M game if the Aggies don’t lose again before that. Tennessee is high in the rankings as well, but their schedule is the most difficult of all the aforementioned over the next three weeks. The Big 10 will also qualify three teams: Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana barring an incredible meltdown. Boise State looks to be the fifth automatic qualifier by winning the Mountain West with their only loss coming in Eugene by a field goal against the top-ranked Ducks. Bronco star RB Ashton Jeanty is also a nationally recognized top Heisman contender at this point.
I’d be remiss not to mention the undefeated Army Black Knights, whose only notable game remaining is against Notre Dame. The Irish are independent, so they won’t play a conference title game, and the Knights are ranked 18th on account of hailing from the American Athletic Conference. The winner of that showdown should make the playoff as well.
This leaves only the lovable, local dumpster fire — the Big 12. BYU is patiently waiting, uncaffeinated, to find out who they’ll meet in the championship. Both Iowa State and Kansas State lost last weekend, dropping K-State behind Colorado in the standings and dropping previously unbeaten Iowa State to 17th in the AP poll. Iowa State needs to win out, including their regular-season finale against the Wildcats, for the Big 12 to make a case for two teams to be included in the playoff selection. If Iowa State collects another conference loss and BYU wins the conference, the second-place squad will have two or three losses and a ranking unable to eclipse the second-place ACC team or even the fourth-place SEC or Big 10 squad. What should you have learned from all this rambling? That the Big 12 kind of sucks this year and not a single Texas-based team from that conference is even in the conversation. You should also take away that SMU is still very much on the path to appear in the new affirmative-action playoffs without even winning their conference and that it’s OK to feel uneasy about all of it.
As for the Frogs, they’re just an above-average offense that turns the ball over far too often and a below-average defense that struggles against the run. TCU’s turnover margin is one of the worst in the nation. Only five teams in the country are worse, but those five teams’ combined record is 6-34. It’s somewhat miraculous the Frogs are 5-4 while giving the ball away as often as they do.
Frustratingly, I don’t think this season has been bad enough for concrete changes to be made to the coaching staff, even though I’ve thought at times Kendal Briles would be thrown onto the proverbial blame sword at several points. To start the season, I tempered expectations by saying that bowl eligibility would be the minimum expectation and eight wins a successful season, both of which are still attainable with TCU’s remaining schedule. The Frogs have beaten only one team with a winning record currently this season (Tech). The 3-6 Oklahoma State Cowboys come to Fort Worth on Saturday, and this coaching staff has a chance to meet base expectations by becoming bowl eligible. Despite the loss against Baylor, zero turnovers is a tremendous improvement for the offense and something that’ll need to continue if Briles and Head Coch Sonny Dykes hope to retain their incumbent status in Funkytown and boost their sagging approval ratings among their purple constituency.
